Credit Scores: A Measure for Violence and Injury Research

A new study, led by Bloomberg Assistant Professor of American Health Mudia Uzzi and published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, finds that neighborhoods in Philadelphia with low credit scores have more than four times the rate of firearm violence compared to neighborhoods with high credit scores – even accounting for other social and economic factors including the poverty rate.  

A credit score is a three-digit number, typically ranging from about 300 to 850, that reflects how reliably a person has repaid borrowed money. It is calculated using information such as payment history, total debt, length of credit history, types of credit used, and recent credit applications. Credit scores are usually thought of as personal financial tools. But in this study, the researchers posited that credit scores can be a strong indicator of socioeconomic inequities, such as access to stable jobs, banking services, and generational wealth, that traditional measures like poverty rates or education levels do not fully capture. 

The research team conducted a cross-sectional study of 1,324 census block groups in Philadelphia. They examined 2017 area-level credit scores and compared them with firearm violence incidents in 2018. Using advanced statistical modeling that accounted for spatial patterns and controlled for other socioeconomic factors, including poverty and education, they assessed whether the average credit score of a neighborhood could be independently associated with violence. 

They found that census block groups with subprime credit scores had a firearm violence rate more than 4.7 times higher than block groups with prime credit scores, even after adjusting for other social and economic variables.  

When a neighborhood’s average credit score increased by 59 points, or one standard deviation, its firearm violence rate dropped by 63%. 

“Importantly,” Uzzi notes, “the association between credit scores and firearm violence was stronger than traditional measures of socioeconomic position. This means that area-level credit scores may act as a powerful indicator of long-standing structural disadvantage--reflecting histories of disinvestment, discriminatory lending, limited access to capital, and financial instability.” 

The findings suggest that firearm violence is deeply connected to the financial health of communities. Policies aimed at improving access to fair credit, expanding economic opportunity, and repairing structural inequities may not only strengthen financial stability but also help reduce violence.  

“Spatial Association of Area-Level Credit Scores and Firearm Violence: A Novel Measure of Socioeconomic Position for Violence and Injury Research” was written by Mudia Uzzi PhD, MSc, Pilar Ocampo MPH, William Wical PhD, Kyle Aune PhD, Mac McComas MA, Lorraine T. Dean ScD.